欧洲购物中心的发展
The Boom Goes On
继续繁荣
Neville Moss*
尼维尔莫斯
Abstract: Europe is currently experiencing an unprecedented boom in shopping-center development. Neville Moss, Head of Retail Research at Jones Lang LaSalle, looks for the main action, examines the reasons behind the surge in activity in Russia and Turkey, and sketches the prospects for new development around the region.
摘要：欧洲目前正经历着前所未有的蓬勃发展购物中心，在Jones Lang LaSalle 零售研究负责人内维尔莫斯（Neville Moss）,观察了主要的行动,剖析在俄罗斯和土耳其十分活跃背后的理由，,勾勒出周边地区新的发展的前景。
Some 50 years after Europes first shopping centers were built, development is booming as never before. The year 2005 was a record one, with some 4.5 million square meters (sq m) (1 square meter = 10.8 square feet) of new space completed, and 2006 was even higher with 5.2 million sq m. That is because within Europe,countries have evolved at a very different pace. Most of the shopping centers in Western Europe were built in the 1970s and 1980s. Southern Europe came to the fore in the 1990s closely followed by Central Europe (Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary) but it is now the time for the large and underdeveloped markets of Eastern Europe.
欧洲的首个购物中心建成约50 年后，蓬勃发展是前所未有的。2005 年创下了历史纪录,约有450 万平方米 ( 1 平方米= 10.8 平方英尺)新的空间完工，并在2006 年还有更高的520 万平方米。这是因为欧洲国家之间已经形成了非常不同的步调。大部分西欧的购物中心建于 20 世纪70 年代和80 年代，南欧在90 年代，紧随其后的是中欧国家(波兰,捷克共和国和匈牙利) ,但现在是大而欠发达的东欧时代。
Russia Most Active Market
俄罗斯是最活跃的市场
Russia was by far the most active market last year, with 1.4 million sq m opening in 36 schemes. Italy (0.61 million sq m) and Spain (0.57 million sq m), were the second- and third most active markets, followed by Germany, Turkey and Poland.
去年，俄罗斯是目前最活跃的市场,有36 个项目140 万平方米开业。意大利( 61 万平方米)，西班牙( 57万平方米) ,分别是第二位和第三位活跃的市场,然后是德国、土耳其和波兰。
The next two years are expected to see more of the same, with a record supply of new shopping-center space planned. Russia has the largest development pipeline by some margin, with approximately 4 million sq m due for completion in 2007-08 (see Chart 10-1).
今后两年，预期仍会看到更多的创纪录的新的购物中心规划空间。兼并是俄罗斯最大的开发途径，约有400 万平方米预计在2007-08 年度完成(见图10-1 )。
Turkey is next with 2.2 million sq m, just ahead of Italy (also 2.2 million sq m) and Poland (1.9 million sq m).The reason for Russias upsurge in development is its recent economic success. The Russian economy has grown at almost 7% a year since 1999, helped by the high price of oil and natural gas. The retail sector has been central to this success story and has received strong government support, including the removal of the sales tax and introduction of a flat rate income tax of just 13%. And with incomes growing by 10% a year since 2002, the boom in the Russian retail market is nothing short of breathtaking. More amazing still is that consumer credit became available only a few years ago and has already risen to US$40 billion. But this is barely 5% of gross domestic product (GDP) and is just one tenth of Western European levels, suggesting that the consumer boom has a long way to run.
接下来是土耳其220万平方米，略高于意大利(也是220万平方米)和波兰(190万平方米) .俄罗斯的高速发展得原因是其近期的经济成就。1999年以来，俄罗斯经济增长近7% ,得益于高油价和天然气。零售业已处于这个成功的中心地位，并得到政府的大力支持，包括取消销售税,并实行单一的所得税率仅13 %。2002年以来，每年收入增长10% ,蓬勃发展的俄罗斯零售市场简直令人赞叹。更加令人惊奇的仍然是消费信贷仅在几年前应用，已上升到400亿美元。但这仅仅是GDP的5%，只是西欧国家的水平的十分之一。这表明消费增长尚有很大的空间。
Moscow has been the main focus for shopping center development and international retailer expansion, but developers and retailers are now targeting other regions. In 2006, IKEA developed five additional malls under its Mega Mall brand: one in Yekaterinburg (90,000 sq m); another in Nizhniy Novgorod (97,000 sq m); one in Moscow (115,000 sq m) and two in St Petersburg (128,000 sq m and 98,000 sq m).
莫斯科一直是开发购物中心和国际零售商扩张的热点。但是，现在开发商和零售商正瞄准其他地区。2006 年,宜家以它下属的百万摩尔（Mega Mall）的品牌开发了的5 个商场。一个在叶卡捷琳堡( 9 万平方米)；另一在诺夫哥罗德(9.7 万平方米) ；一个在莫斯科( 11.5 万平方米)和两个在圣彼得堡( 12.8 万平方米和9.8 万平方米) 。
Russias Regional Cities Have the Largest Short Term Development Potential
俄罗斯区域性城市,拥有最大的短期发展潜力
In the Millionniki (11 regional cities with a population of one million and over), stock is expected to rise from 1 million sq m today to 3.4 million sq m by 2008. Samara, Nizhniy Novgorod, Kazan and Yekaterinburg remain the retail hotspots, but Novosibirsk, Ufa and Rostov will also see strong retail provision growth. The Moscow development market remains buoyant, however, and includes the 80,000 sq m Metropolis. Due in 2008, it is one of the first malls geared toward the wealthier shopper.
在Millionniki ( 11 个区域性城市的人口在100 万以上) ,通常可望从现在的100 万平方米上升至2008年的340 万平方米。萨马拉、诺夫哥罗德、喀山和叶卡捷琳堡保持为零售的热区。但新西伯利亚,、乌法和罗斯托夫还会见到强劲的零售业供应量的增长。然而，莫斯科开发市场仍然蓬勃增长,包括应在2008 年的8万平方米的Metropolis。它是第一个面向富人购物者的摩尔。
In Turkey, a Young and Fast-growing Population is Driving Retail Growth
一个年轻的人口迅速增长的土耳其推动零售业的增长
Turkey is also booming, and is one of the fastest growing and largest emerging economies. The population of 74 million will grow faster than any other European country over the next five years, and the principal city of Istanbul, one of Europes four mega cities alongside Moscow, Paris and London, will see its population rise by 14%. An increasingly urban and very young Turkish population70% under age 35, compared with less than 50% in Western Europeis becoming richer and embracing Western shopping habits. This is driving the retail sector and inspiring the development of new malls, with 26 new openings in 2006, including the highly innovative Kanyon shopping center in Istanbul which is anchored by Harvey Nichols, Britains upmarket fashion department store.
土耳其也在蓬勃发展，它是增长最快的之一，也是最大的新兴经济体。人口7400万人，在未来五年内将比任何其他欧洲国家的增长要快。主要城市伊斯坦布尔,它与莫斯科、巴黎和伦敦是欧洲四个百万城市，将看到其人口增长率为14 %。土耳其越来越多的城市,非常年轻的人口70%人口在35岁以下。而西欧低于50%。这些年轻人正成为富人并接受西方的购物习惯.这是零售业和激励开发新的商场的驱动力。2006年有26个新开业的，包括高度创新在伊斯坦布尔的Kanyon购物中心，它由英国的高档时尚百货公司哈维尼科尔斯作为锚店。
Over the next two years more than 60 new centers are scheduled to open. The main share of the pipeline (43schemes) will be developed in Istanbul and in the capital, Ankara, but regional markets are gaining in importance, with another 18 schemes due for completion in cities such as Bursa , Izmir and Antalya.
在未来两年内，超过60 个新购物中心将落成启用，43 个项目的主要份额分布在伊斯坦布尔和首都安卡拉,但区域市场也日益受到重视,另外18 个项目应该在布尔萨、伊兹密尔和安塔利亚等城市落成。
Southern Europe is Maturing
南欧正在成熟
New shopping centers are still springing up in the maturing Southern European markets. In Italy,development is heavily focused on the under-supplied central and southern regions, but this remains a relatively poor area and there is doubt as to whether all the planned space will actually be built. In Spain,shopping-center supply has doubled over the last six years, but is now growing more slowly. The focus here is on second-tier cities and on Mediterranean coastal locations such as Valencia, Alicante and Murcia. New residential development, the increase in second homes and a strong tourist economy is proving a powerful attraction to developers.
在"成熟"和南欧市场，新的购物中心仍如雨后春笋。在意大利,开发长子侧重集中在供应不足的中部和南部地区,但这仍然是一个相对贫穷地区。产生的疑问是是否将所有规划的空间实际建在西班牙。过去六年来，购物中心供应量增加了一倍,但现在是越来越慢。重点是在二线城市和地中海沿岸的地点如瓦伦西亚,阿利坎特和穆尔西亚。新住宅的发展；增加第二居所和强大的旅游经济对开发商有强烈的吸引力。
Development Activity is Still Strong in Central Europe中欧的开发仍旺盛
Poland is the most active market in Central Europe. By the end of 2008 the forecast calls for 40% more shopping-center space than there is now. In general, the planned schemes are larger than those for their Central European neighbors, reflecting the larger number of urban areas in Poland. With limited opportunities left in the bigger cities ,developers are now focusing on smaller towns with populations of less than 200,000 and increasingly on towns with as few as 50,000 people.
波兰是中欧最活跃的市场。据预测到2008年底购物中心比现在增加40%。一般而言,规划的项目均较其东欧邻国大，多数在波兰的市区。因此，大城市中机会有限，现在开发商关注人口少于20万的小镇。并日益关注象5万人口那样的小镇。
In Western Europe the Focusis on Regeneration of Town Centers
西欧重视市中心的重建
Not all the action is in the East and South, however. Germany, The Netherlands and the U.K. are all active,with the focus very much on town center development, mostly because of tough planning laws which make it more difficult to build out-of-town. Regeneration is a key feature of these more mature markets, particularly in the U.K., wher many schemesare part of wider regeneration initiatives such as the 1.9 million sq m Stratford City, which will open in East London in 2010. In fact there is a trend toward town center evelopment throughout Europe, with Italy being a notable exception due to a lack of development opportunities in their protected town centers.
并非所有的项目都在东部和南部，但是德国、荷兰和英国都非常活跃，重点在市中心的开发。主要是因为硬性的规划法律使其在市镇外建设十分困难。在这些较成熟的市场中改造旧物业是一个重要特征。特别在英国,有许多主动改造的项目如190 万平方米的斯特拉福城，将在2010 年东伦敦开业。事实上，向市中心演化的趋势遍布整个欧洲，意大利是一个明显的例外，由于缺乏发展机会,在他们那里保护市中心。
Development Opportunities Remain Throughout Europe
保持整个欧洲的发展机遇
So, wher are the opportunities for developers going forward? A look at Chart 10-2 shows there are still hugediscrepancies in terms of the amount of shopping-center space per capita.The potential for Romania, Russia and Turkey with their fast-growing economies is clear, but there are also substantial opportunities in more mature markets. For example, numerous small-scale extensions and refurbishments are planned in The Netherlands, which is near the top of the ranking in Chart 10-2. Developers have to be constantly ahead of the game if they are to succeed in an increasingly sophisticated market, and creating new space is one way to provide a competitive advantage.
对开发商来说还有发展的机会吗?看图10-2，显示那里仍有巨大的机会。根据人均拥有购物中心空间的数据可知差别很大。罗马尼亚、俄罗斯和土耳其因其快速成长的经济潜力很清楚，但在更成熟的市场中也有大量的机会。举例来说，在荷兰许多小规模的扩建和修缮项目，在图10-2 中被排在近顶部的位置。如果他们能够在一个日益复杂的市场中取得成功，开发商必须不断地领先，并通过提供竞争优势的方法来创造新的空间。
A Reality Check
审视现实
Not all the schemes planned over the next few years will be built. This is particularly true in the CzechRepublic, wher developers are clambering over each other to build shopping centers in the second- and third tier cities, resulting in up to five proposals for one town, wher there is room for only one or maybe two schemes.
不是所有的项目计划在未来数年内建成，这在捷克共和国尤其如此，那里开发商在二线和三线城市纷纷竞相兴建购物中心，造成在仅有一个或两个项目机会的一个镇结果开发多达五个项目。
The best located schemes that can attract the right retailers will, of course, succeed at the expense of the others.So the pipeline is exaggerated in some cases, but this does not deflect from the fact that we are witnessing the largest shopping-center development boom in Europes history.
一个不惜代价最好位置的项目可以吸引到正确的零售商。在有些情况下,虽然在某些案例中盘子被夸大了。但这并不改变，事实上，我们目击了欧洲历史上最大的购物中心兴旺发展。
Neville Moss is Director of European Retail Research at Jones Lang LaSalle, responsible for the retail research agenda, providing in-depth support to the European Retail Capital Markets Team across the retail spectrum, including shopping centers and retail warehousing. His two key responsibilities are to enhance the retail research offer of Jones Lang LaSalle, and further develop the firms retail futures research which differentiates Jones Lang LaSalle as a market leader in the retail field. He has some 18 years experience in retail property research, working throughout Europe, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe and Southern Europe. He has extensive experience in providing retail feasibility studies, investment research advice, tenant mix strategies and market entry strategies for a range of developers, investors and retailers. His focus has been shopping centers but he has also covered retail warehouses, factory outlet centers and leisure-based schemes. He has also managed in-depth research publications in all these areas over recent years. He joined Jones Lang LaSalle in 2005 from Cushman and Wakefield, wher he was Head o Development Research for Europe. Prior to that he was a Senior Researcher at Knight Frank. Neville earned his Bachelor of Arts (HONS) in Textile Management and Marketing from the University of Leeds in 1984. Member of the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC).Member of the Steering Group Committee of the European Research Group (ICSC) and Chairman of the Project Management Committee.
（译者：俞稚玉）
